Anybody knows when the ST stocks/prices are going to be back to normal?

[SLasn.1]

Hi 🙂

I am actually interested particularly in the STM8L151 series, but as I understood this is a global problem for all ST MCUs (and even from other companies - but the ST stocks seems particularly bad).

I designed my product expecting to buy STM8L151G6U6 at 70 cents a unit, and now I have to pay $12 for it. What worries me more is that I will not go into production before a few months, and the price will probably rise even more until then.

Any ideas/predictions about when the prices and stock can go back to normal?

Thank you!

Simon

[TDK]

Months to years. Lots of stories out there but nobody really knows for sure. It's a problem for all chips, not just ST, but ST chips are quite popular so the problem is somewhat worse.

[SLasn.1]

OK fair enough - thanks for the reply 🙂

[Tesla DeLorean]

Problem is that "stock" is built via surplus or slack time at the fab's, when do you expect that will normalize? The arbitrage guys think this will be deep into 2022

At the moment we have the "Now Serving" tickets, so unless you have an order actually pending and a place in line, your expectations are going to keep pushing out.

Get an order on the books now, because 36 weeks out, the new delivery offered will likely be 36 weeks on from there.

[Tesla DeLorean]

I don't however think the $12 price you've been offered is sustainable long term, it's really a short squeeze on those with hard commitments to deliver, and not planning. Suggests the part is super-critical to someone in the chain, or you're not talking to the real holder, but a broker.

12-weeks is a typical lead time for a fab running at full utilization and selling all the parts. Current lead times reflect booked orders against capacity, and that has to work through, some of those orders are speculative, but prepaid, some of that likely to be sold at premiums, although I think 23x is an outlier.